Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the country and caused chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the political, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. Each writes two pieces that seek impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments cover national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the idea that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will in the end lose but each side has has valuable insights to acquire from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
