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Increasing concerns have emerged regarding the potential of armed conflict among East African neighbours, Ethiopia and the Eritrean government, as aggressive discourse has ratcheted up in recent weeks.

What Has Ethiopia Declared?

Landlocked Ethiopia's demands for access to the Red Sea through Eritrean territory has provoked a heated war of words.

The Ethiopian leader first openly declared in the previous year that his nation's access to the sea was an existential matter, comments that Eritrea ignored.

Diplomatic connections between the both governments have frequently been strained. Following a decades-long fight for sovereignty, the Eritrean state, which has a 1,350km (840-mile) maritime frontage, formally separated from Ethiopian rule in 1993, rendering it landlocked.

In 1998, a territorial conflict erupted in which more than 100,000 people were killed.

Recent Statements from Ethiopia's Officials

Abiy and army chief Field Marshal Birhanu Jula have publicly asserted control of Eritrean southern port of Assab – about 60km from the frontier - and hinted at the wish to take it by force.

Recently, Abiy said Ethiopia's "mistake" of losing access to the sea as a result of Eritrea's separation would be "rectified in the future".

Ethiopia's ambassador to Kenya, former General Bacha Debele, said that the port was "belonging to Ethiopia" and would be given back "through military action".

Eritrea's Answer to the Threats

In the face of ongoing threats from Ethiopia, Eritrea's response has been limited to concise remarks on X from Information Minister Yemane G..

He has rejected Ethiopia's demand for maritime entry calling it "dangerous" and a "harmful plan" of "territorial claims" – a policy of reclaiming former lands.

The information ministry cautioned on 16 September that moves to legitimise "obvious provocation" would have major implications for Ethiopia and its neighbouring countries and is a "limit that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Military Activities on the Ground

Currently, there are few indications of significant troop deployments in the boundary zones between the neighboring states.

Nonetheless, in the country, national TV has displayed completion events of numerous trainees at different defense facilities.

The head of human resources department of the military, General Hachalu, recently said in an conversation that the military was in a "secure situation" as "many thousands of young people" were enlisting, which he said was "a signal to our opponents".

Previous Background of the Conflict

For more than half a century from the late 19th century, the territory was governed by colonial powers.

After Italy's defeat, it was then controlled by the British military before turning into a federated part of Ethiopia.

Yet in 1962 Emperor Haile Selassie I ended this agreement and the region became totally absorbed into the Ethiopian state.

A thirty-year internal conflict occurred, concluding with military reversal in 1991. Sovereignty was then confirmed by the population in a referendum in 1993.

Temporarily in the 1990s, there were good relations between the governments in Ethiopia's capital and Eritrea's capital, but they fell out over the specific demarcation of their mutual frontier, leading to war in 1998.

Although this concluded in a ceasefire agreement in 2000, it was incompletely executed, and the both countries continued at in dispute.

This ended in 2018, when the Prime Minister made approaches to Eritrea's leader President Isaias. The both leaders endorsed a declaration that the hostilities was over – a action that gained Abiy the Nobel Peace Prize.

The two governments were then cooperators in Ethiopia's previous armed struggle in the northern region.

However ties have subsequently deteriorated again.